Metals show mixed performance, with SHFE nickel rising over 1%, polysilicon recording eight consecutive days of gains, and SHFE silver breaking through the 9,000 mark to hit a new high [SMM Daily Review]

SMM reported on July 11:

Metals Market:

As of the daytime session close, domestic base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead and SHFE tin declining - SHFE lead fell 0.81% while SHFE tin dropped 0.4%. SHFE nickel led gains with a 1.23% increase, and other metals showed minor fluctuations. Alumina main contract fell 2.44%, and aluminum casting main contract declined 0.03%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract dropped 0.28%, polysilicon main contract rose 1.94% to record eight consecutive gains, and silicon metal main contract gained 0.48%. The European container shipping main contract fell 0.71% to close at 2,030.6.

The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with stainless steel being the sole decliner (-0.82%). Iron ore, rebar, and HRC all surged over 1% - iron ore rose 1.8%, HRC gained 1.24%, and rebar increased 1.1%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 3.34% while coke climbed 2.81%.Z6/>Overseas markets: As of 15:03, overseas base metals showed mixed performance. LME zinc rose 0.05%, while LME lead fell 0.86% and LME tin dropped 0.76%. Other metals experienced relatively small percentage changes.

Precious metals: As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 0.63% and COMEX silver gained 1.88%. NYMEX silver peaked at $38.26/oz during the session, marking a new high since September 2011. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.31%, SHFE silver increased 1.74%, with SHFE silver hitting a record high of 9,118 yuan/kg during the session.

Market snapshot as of 15:03 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[SASAC: Accelerate concentration of state capital into forward-looking strategic emerging industries] The CPC Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a special meeting on July 10. The meeting emphasized accelerating breakthroughs in core technologies, advancing innovation platform construction, strengthening common technology supply, reinforcing basic research, and achieving high-level scientific self-reliance. It stressed strategic planning, enhancing policy support for capital contributors, and promoting concentration of state capital into forward-looking strategic emerging industries. Priority should be given to developing strategic emerging industries and future-oriented sectors through major project-driven approaches, scenario applications, and new infrastructure development to solidify national strategic security foundations.

[Shanghai Fengxian: Support enterprises in developing advanced-process integrated circuit supporting materials such as 6N-level+ high-purity targets, deep UV photoresists, and auxiliary reagents] The Shanghai Fengxian District People's Government Office issued the "Fengxian District General New Materials Industry Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" on July 11. It was proposed to focus on the Shanghai Electronic Chemicals Special Zone as the carrier, with the Hangzhou Bay Development Zone and the Industrial Comprehensive Development Zone as the key areas. Relying on enterprises such as Enthone, Tongchuang Purun, and Kangmeite, efforts will be made to focus on the development of supporting materials for integrated circuits, including wet chemicals, high-purity target materials, electronic gases, and semiconductor packaging materials. Support will be provided to enterprises for the development of advanced process integrated circuit supporting materials, such as high-purity target materials above 6N, high-purity reagents above G3, deep ultraviolet photoresists, and supporting reagents, to accelerate the realization of domestic substitution. Efforts will be made to promote the implementation of the Tongchuang Purun New Materials Industrial Park project and create space for the expansion of the industry chain ecosystem.

►On July 11, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1475 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose by 0.26% to 97.83, and it is expected that the US dollar index will record its largest weekly gain since the week of February 24 this week. Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly fell to a seven-week low, indicating a stabilization of the US labor market, which means that the US Fed does not need to resume interest rate cuts. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the UK's May GDP monthly rate, the UK's May industrial production monthly rate, the UK's May industrial production annual rate, the UK's May goods trade balance - seasonally adjusted, the UK's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, changes in Canada's June employment, Canada's June unemployment rate, and Switzerland's June consumer confidence index - seasonally adjusted will be released. In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Waller participated in a panel discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed and the Dallas/Fort Worth World Affairs Council, and 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the US economic outlook.

Crude oil:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US oil up by 0.78% and Brent oil up by 0.64%. Boosted by uncertainties in Russia's supply outlook, while tariff concerns and increased OPEC+ production limited the gains.

Analysts from ING wrote in a client report on Friday: "This morning, after President Trump said he planned to make a 'major' announcement on Russia on Monday, oil prices recovered some of their losses. This may make the market nervous about the possibility of further sanctions on Russia." According to CCTV News, on July 10 local time, US President Trump revealed that he would make a "major" announcement on Russia next Monday (July 14 local time).

One sign of improving demand is that Saudi Arabia will ship approximately 51 million barrels of crude oil to China in August, the largest shipment in more than two years. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the OPEC+ group reached an agreement to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, placing pressure on oil prices this week. ING analysts stated that another production increase might occur in September, followed by a pause. These production increases should push the global market into a significant surplus in Q4, exacerbating downward price pressure, according to ING analysts.

In its *2025 World Oil Outlook* released on Thursday, OPEC revised down its global oil demand forecasts for 2026-2029. The organization stated that global average oil demand will rise to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, lower than the previously projected 108 million barrels per day in last year's report. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►July 11: High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption; aluminum billet processing fees remain low [Aluminum billet spot daily review]

►Aluminum prices fluctuate slightly; some regions belatedly raise aluminum scrap quotes [Aluminum scrap daily review]

►[SMM nickel sulphate daily review] July 11: Nickel salt prices stabilize

►Back-and-forth negotiations persist between upstream and downstream; prices remain in the doldrums short-term [NPI daily review]

►Rare earth concentrate price hikes drive modest market gains [SMM rare earth daily review]